Housing Starts — If You’ll Believe It

by Ken Kappel on December 23, 2011

Here’s a brain tease. We print the chart and text below it from BusinessInsider. com, with all respect, BUT,  we’re not buying it. All the text below the chart — is from them. They close it out with comment from a huge, so-called respected, developer consultant. Well sure, they’re selling selling selling.

We’re not buying. None of it. We’re heading for a major Greater Depression and these fantasy hustlers are acting like: “Hey Hey, It’s all OK.” We don’t think so.

Ken here. Text below is not ours, and we’re not buying it. The chart is the thing. Good Point.


“We’ll Need To Build A LOT More Houses

“Today’s “strong” housing starts number has prompted people to ask a question that’s been recurring for the past few years: Wait, why do we need more houses? Don’t we have way too many?

“The answer is: Yes, we do need more houses. Or at least we will.

“While we did establish a pretty big glut of housing, a lot of that is in just a handful of “boom” states (see the bottom chart here).

What’s more, existing home inventory is definitely on the decline, as measured by the number of months of homes for sale.

Ken here. What planet do they live on. The “shadow “foreclosed” inventory” is held off the market by the Banksters. Proving to us, that these folks are shills and well, worse.

“And finally, there’s a demographic tailwind.

“The fact of the matter is that more people being born = more demand for houses, and we have a lot of catching up to do.

“The easiest way to see this is to look at housing starts vs. the total population. As bad as you thought the number was, it’s actually much worse.

“In testimony in front of Congress earlier this year, Ivy Zelman of the respected Zelman and associates said:

“Currently, Zelman & Associates is forecasting 11% household growth for the current decade supported by 8% population growth, which I believe should eventually translate into a normal level of 1.4-1.6 million total housing starts per annum. For reference, in 2011, I estimate that total housing starts will be roughly flat from 2010 at 590,000 units. However, I expect single-family starts to hit a new post World War II low of 420,000 units, down 11% from 2010. To put today’s depressed levels in perspective, the current level of total starts would compare to 1.06 million in 1982 when unemployment was as high as 10.8% and 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 16-18% range.

“Bottom line: Eventually we’re going to need a lot more houses.

Ken here: Bottom Bottom Line, yeah we will — when pig’s fly. Ok before that, but, not for many many years. Watch, you’ll see. Remember the text you just read above, with the “quotation marks” is not from us, and we severely criticize it.

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